The recently discovered asteroid 2024 YR4 has captured the attention of the scientific community due to its uncertain trajectory and an estimated 1 in 83 chance of impact by December 2032. Measuring approximately 60 meters in diameter, this near-Earth object (NEO) has been classified as a level 3 on the Turin Scale, indicating that it merits detailed observation.
Critical approach of asteroid 2024 YR4
The asteroid , currently more than 35 million kilometers from Earth, will make a significant close approach on December 22, 2032. While preliminary estimates suggest it will pass within about 106,200 kilometers of our planet, the uncertainty in its orbit leaves open the possibility of a collision.
[post_relacionado]According to NASA ‘s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS), 2024 YR4 has been added to the European Space Agency’s impact risk list and NASA’s Sentry Risk Table, making it a priority object for future observations.
Potential impact and consequences
On impact, the asteroid could generate an atmospheric explosion, similar to the Tunguska event of 1908, which devastated a vast region of Siberia. Alternatively, if its composition is denser, it could break through the atmosphere and create a crater on the Earth’s surface .
Astronomers stress that precise knowledge of its size and composition is crucial to assessing possible damage. However, these characteristics have not yet been determined precisely, as they depend on radar observations that are not feasible at the moment.
Follow-up and next observations
The NASA-funded ATLAS telescope in Chile was the first to spot 2024 YR4 , while astronomers with the Catalina Sky Survey have been collecting additional data. Experts say another close approach of the asteroid to within 8 million kilometers of Earth will occur in 2028 , allowing for improved orbital calculations and refined impact predictions.
Although the likelihood of a collision remains low, the scientific community will continue to monitor the object in the coming years. The current uncertainty about its trajectory highlights the importance of continued observations to determine whether it poses a real threat to Earth in 2032.
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Source: ESA